Observing when private companies "go public", I've come to what (I think) is an obvious conclusion:
No one sells a business if they expect it to provide risk-free cash for the foreseeable future.
Update 2019 11 15: CBC's The Current a few minutes ago aired a panel discussion about the ARAMCO IPO. One of the panelists pointed out that oil prices are depressed, and likely to remain so. He used the phrase "oil sloshing around".
Another thought (2019 11 22): If we manage to convert to non-fossil fuels in time to prevent our civilisation's collapse, demand for oil will collapse. If our civilisation collapses, demand for oil will collapse (and the oil-transport infrastructure will cease to function). Either way, there will be no more profit for ARAMCO. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has a lot of sun-soaked desert, ideal for solar power arrays.
The only question left to answer is how fast the oil industry will decline to near-zero. That answer is included in the answer to how fast the climate will change, and how fast we can reduce the effects.
Update 2020 03 17: David Olive writing in the Toronto Star points out that oil is a dying business, and that it's past time for Alberta to diversify its economy. About a year and a half ago, I said much the same thing on Facebook, and was attacked for "hating Alberta." And on this blog, I made the same points as Olive three years ago: https://kirkwood40.blogspot.com/2016/12/pipelines-and-alberta-economy.html
See also my comments on the cost of cleaning up Alberta's oil and gas wells: https://kirkwood40.blogspot.com/2019/04/alberta-and-oil-or-subsidies-forever.html
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