Post-election comments II

 A comment on my 2015 pre-election musings:

The only prediction in that 2015 post that turned out to be valid is implied in the last sentence. Harper managed to keep the far right and centre right together. Andrew Scheer couldn't do that. The attack on his leadership came from the far right.

Two elections later: Trudeau enjoyed a majority from 2015 to 2019, and now must manage with a minority. The Conservatives are the official opposition, but the deep fault lines between the centre right and the far right in that party have become visible in the attack on Andrew Scheer. They will co-operate or abstain on issues with broad public support, and will reiterate their tax-cutting mantras.

The Greens don't have enough votes to make a difference, but Trudeau will certainly co-opt them for good optics whenever he can. The Bloc Quebecois and the NDP have little common policy, and so will bargain for different goodies. At some point, both will tire of the game, and one or the other will trigger an election when they think the polls show an advantage for them.

This will not be a minority government that will do much for most of us. We Canadians are centre-left, but we've caiught the anti-tax infection from south of the border. This government will try to woo the West, risking loss of support in the rest of Canada (which is getting rather tired of Alberta whinging because  its economy has declined to only slightly better than the rest of the country). A past politician observed that Canada has too much geography. True. And that's what makes it difficult to govern.