Since this is a wage subsidy program, most of the money will be used to pay for shelter, utilities, food, and transportation. Most of these dollars will generate sales tax revenue for the Province (8% in Ontario) and/or the Federal government (5%) when spent.
But a dollar spent will be spent again. The consensus is that a dollar will be spent between five and seven times before all or part of it returns to the original spender. That means about 65 to 70% of the money will return to the governments.
In short, the wage subsidy will largely pay for itself. The question, “How much will the program cost?” misses the point.
Footnote: The Canadian government will provide wage subsidies of 75% on the first $59,400 of a person's wages. This will be available to all employers whose business has been impacted by covid-19. The Prime Minister also urged businesses to pay the additional 25%, and warned that any business trying to game the system will be dealt with. Many workers will eventually pay income tax on all or part of the wage subsidy.
Update 2020 03 31: My arithmetic is off, since food isn't taxed. So I estimate the payback in taxes at about 40 to 70%. However I haven't factored in the payback, financial and otherwise, of keeping the suppliers of food and transportation etc in business.
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