Sunday, May 03, 2020
The state of corona virus knowledge as of today (May 3, 2020)
SARS-CoV-2 (the virus) and covid -19 (the illness)
Here’s what “we” know and don’t know as of 2020-05-01. “We” are the people who’ve collected and interpreted the data. “We know” means the data strongly support the conclusion. “We don’t know” means there are insufficient data to draw a conclusion. Compiled from reports in science news magazines, media reports, and Q & A sessions with experts.-WEK
A) We know: Some people are infected with the virus but don’t get sick.
We don’t know: how many.
B) We know that the effects of the virus range from zero to death; and mild to lethal complications.
We don’t know: Why the virus has such a wide range of effects.
C) We know: there is a time between infection and symptoms during which a person will be infectious.
We don’t know: the actual range of both time and severity of this infectious state.
D) We know: that people who’ve been infected will have anti-bodies in their blood;
We don’t know: whether the presence of antibodies gives immunity, nor what degree of immunity, nor how long such immunity might last.
E) We know: there will be second wave of infection, and probably a third and fourth one,
We don’t know: how bad these subsequent waves will be.
F) We know: that some of the economic and social effects will be permanent.
We don’t know: which effects, nor how these effects might change over time, nor what the knock-on effects will be.
G) We know: covid-19 will become another infectious disease that will take its yearly toll.
We don’t know: when that will happen, nor how common or lethal covid-19 will be.
H) We know: that some anti-viral treatments show some activity against SARS-CoV-2.
We don’t know: whether that activity will be good enough for effective tretament.
I) We know: effective treatments and a vaccine will reduce the danger of covid-19 to that of the flu.
We don’t know: which treatments will be effective.
We don’t know: whether a vaccine is possible, and if possible, how well it is likely to work.
J) We know: the counter-measures have reduced infection rates.
We don’t know: how effective those counter measures actually were.
K) We know: that a combination of dry cough and high fever, with some other signs such as difficulty breathing, indicate covid-19. But only a test can confirm the diagnosis.
We don’t know: what other signs and symptoms may be indicators of covid-19.
Update 2020 05 04: UK doctors have observed covid-19 patients with low and extremely low blood oxygen levels, but without the usual distress. Another puzzle.
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