The Players Come Again, again

     Amanda Cross. The Players Come Again (1990) A reread, and just as good as the first time. Better, because I knew the solution, so the path to it was more interesting. Cross makes a case that the Minoans were an egalitarian culture, uninfected by the brutal masculinity of the Greeks, who retold the Minotaur myth to conform to their pro-patriarchal prejudices and misogyny. This has a tangential connection to the case. As always, the conversation is adult and literate. The puzzle circles round the question of who wrote Emanuel Foxx’s great modernist novel Ariadne, he himself, or his wife Gabrielle. A pleasure to read. Cross’s men aren’t very convincing, though. **½

Free Will: Real or illusion?

     Sam Harris. Free Will (2012) A well done essay on the illusion of free will, argued not only from first principles (a deterministic universe), but also from neurology, psychology, and self-insight. Basically, we are what we are, and that means we do what we do. We cannot account for any kind of free choice, all attempts to do so are either infinite regress (did we choose to choose? If so, did we choose to choose to choose?); or else misapprehensions of the meaning of chance in a deterministic universe. He’s most convincing, I think, when he points out that we cannot determine what moved us to make a choice in the first place. We simply make a choice, but we cannot show that it was free. For if we are free to make any one choice, what other choice would we have made? (1)
     It’s clear that in accepting that free will is an illusion there’s a serious question about moral responsibility, and hence culpability. Does it make moral sense to exact retributive justice if the criminal’s choice was as thoroughly determined as my choice to have strawberry jam instead of marmalade on my breakfast toast?  Harris points out that criminals are either more or less damaged, or else lack those psychological structures that prevent most of us from acting criminally. Either way, it’s basically the luck of the draw, of the confluence of genetics and environment. You can’t blame a person for developing cancer, for that too is the result of genetics and environment.
     So how to deal with criminal actions? Recognise that people can change: obesity is caused by genetic and environmental factors, but changes in behaviour may reduce it. Thus, rehabilitation should always be attempted. If that requires removing the criminal from society, then do so, for however long it takes. Also, subtle and not so subtle changes in social norms change people’s behaviour: they affect the choices people make. Example: the reduction in drinking and driving. All choices are made within a context of available choices, so we may reduce crime by making undesirable choices difficult or impossible. For example, you can’t choose to shoot someone if you don’t have a gun.
     Harris knows we can’t avoid the illusion of free will, but we can treat each other more humanely using the knowledge that free will is an illusion. He doesn’t ask or answer the more profound question of why we have that illusion. I think it’s because the illusion of the self requires it. We can’t experience ourselves as agents without it. Yet experiencing ourselves as agents is vital to our survival. Without it, we would be incapable of acting. We would merely respond. But I’m not sure exactly what I mean by that.
     An essay worth reading and rereading. It makes you think. Just what you will think depends of course on factors over which you have no control whatsoever. ****

(1) Update 2025-07-29: By the same logic, we cannot show that any given choice was determined. Harris should have stopped his discussion right there. But. . .  Besides, the attempt to distinguish free from determined choice also fails on neurological grounds. Our sensory inputs are processed at different rates, yet we experience them as happening in the correct order (which includes simultaneity). "Experience" means "be aware of", which in turn means that conscious experience is constructed by the brain to conform to reality well enough to enable survival long enough, most of the time, to reproduce. That's how natural selection works.

The self that decides is as much a construct of the brain as all the rest of the simulation that we experience as reality. It seems to me that this fact makes the question of free will pointless. To put it another way, it's a non-question, since (as Harris admits) there is no way of distinguishing between free and determined choice. The abstract argument that the universe is determined, and therefore our choices are determined misses the point. For the universe is also, per quantum mechanics, fundamentally unpredictable. Worse, it is also fundamentally inexplicable, for to explicate the past requires definitive knowledge of all the factors that determine any give event. Per quantum mechanics, definitive knowledge is impossible. So of we can neither distinguish free from determined choice post facto, nor predict it ante facto, what's the point of trying to prove that choice is free or determined?

Perfect potato-chip book

       Isaac Asimov, Martin H. Greenberg and Joseph D. Olander. 100 Malicious Little Mysteries (1981) A wonderful potato chip book. The stories are mostly 3 to 4 pages long, with a few outliers. Common plot twists feature poetic justice, radical shifts in point of view, or sudden recognition of a minor clue’s meaning. Each could be redone as a full-length novel, which makes this book a reference work of sorts. Most are little gems of narrative art, the whole book a master class in how to put much meaning into a very small frame. A keeper. ***

Short stories by Rankin

Ian Rankin. Beggars Banquet (2002) Collection of short stories, several of which are about Rebus. Like Rendell, Rankin enjoys imagining psychopaths. Makes for page-turning, but too many of these tales leave a bad taste, despite slatherings of poetic justice.
  And the title omits th apostrophe. Because including it would spoil the cover design? Probably.
  This collection would be a poor introduction to Rankin. **

Regression to the mean: The real reason Apple shares are falling

The BBC ttoday has a story explaining why the punters are unwilling to pay high prices for Apple shares:
     1. Investors are worried about iPhone sales.
     2. Apple's high prices could leave it exposed if the economy sours.
     3. Investors aren't confident - yet - about Apple's services business.
     4. Apple reflects broader market concerns - like US-China trade tensions.

All very plausible, as is always the case when explaining why an outlier is regressing to the mean. The stock market is a complex, chaotic system. Any given indicator will "perform" better than average some of the time, but it will also perform worse than average. But on average, it will perform -- ta-da! -- on average. What else? So any excursion into well above (or below) average levels will not last. One can always find plausible reasons why the shift towards the average happened now rather than earlier or later, just as one one can find plausible reasons for the non-average performance that preceded it.

Some of those reasons may even the operative ones. But we'll never know for sure which ones triggered the shift, nor can we use those plausible reasons for predicting when or how the next major shift will occur. That's because the indicators are themselves averages. Worse, we don't have causal models of economic behaviour, we have only statistical ones. This is so even though (especially so, actually) when buyers and sellers are algorithms that weigh many different factors to arrive at a price. Human or not, the buyers and sellers include current prices and recent price changes in their calculations. That means that the price calculations are feedback loops. Hence the chaos in the system, and the inevitable regressions to the mean.

Addendum (2018-12-12): I should perhaps emphasise that explicability is not the same as predictability. Events that result from the interplay of many factors cannot be predicted.The best one can do is study past performance and calculate probabilities. Basing a choice on probabilities is always (ta-da!) a gamble. Hence th attraction of horse racing and other objects of wagers. However, once some event has occurred, one can usually point to those factors that played a major or (sometimes) decisive role. Hence "Hindsight is 20-20". And the pointlessness of trying to lay blame on agencies and people tasked with protecting us against calamities.

Clouds over the North Channel

This morning around 10:30am. You're looking at Lake Huron.

Dr Hu, no not the Time Lord, but a cool guy anyhow (links)

Check out Dr Hu on research into animal movement. Interviewed on CBC's Radio One Quirks and Quarks. Will be available as a podcast by the end of the day.

Update 2026-02-14: No longer available. However, his book on animal movement is available from several sources: 

How to Walk on Water and Climb up Walls: Animal Movement and the Robots of the Future

• David Hu

Turn of the Screw: Rybczynski's history of the screwdriver

   Witold Rybczynski. One Good Turn (2000) Rybczynski was asked to write an article about the most important tool of the millennium. Some research showed that pretty well all the tools expected in a good toolbox had been invented much more 1,000 years ago. Eventually, he settled on the screwdriver, and wrote the essay. But the research was incomplete. This book recounts the research.
The screw is quite old: the Greeks and Romans had it. But the screwdriver dates from some time in the 1300s. That discovery prompts Rybczynski to meditate on the nature of invention, and the effects of the machine tool. For the screw enabled the creation of the device that made it possible to mass-produce screws: the machine tool. There were lathes earlier than the screw-cutting lathe, but the quality of the work depended on the skills of their operators: they were basically devices for holding and turning the workpiece, but the operator had to control the cutting tool.
     Modern lathes simplify control of the cutting tool, but still require operator skill. The machine tool does it all. Mount the workpiece, apply power, and the tool shapes the pieces as desired. Above all, the machine tool allows us to make identical parts to almost any degree of precision. Without that, steam engines and other modern machines would be impossible to make.
     A book worth reading and rereading. Rybczynski writes with grace and economy. The book is short, but contains a lot of information and insight. ****

Jim Galloway, jazz musician

Jim Galloway On TVO Take a look and a listen. Also on Youtube.

HAL is Dead: Douglas Rain

Douglas Rain, the voice of HAL in 2001: A Space Odyssey, has died.

An Early Sackett tale: Ride the Dark Trail

Ride the Dark Trail (1972) Some time ago, I found a stash of about a dozen books by L’Amour at the food bank’s yard sale. I sorted out the Sackett series, and began reading them. This is the 2nd one.
  Logan Sackett drifts into Siwash, a town run by a greedy bully, John Flannan. Logan immediately makes enemies when he defends a young girl. He just doesn’t like the way the men in the saloon treat her. He takes her to the MT ranch, which Emily Talon is defending against Flannan’s attempts to run her off. Flannan has killed Em’s husband, and Em shot Flannan through the knees in retaliation. So it’s as much a feud as an attempted robbery.
     Turns out Em is a Sackett, so of course Logan has to stay to help her out. Eventually Em’s sons Barnabas and Milo join them, but the final showdown is between Logan, Em, and Flannan. Along the way, Logan is shot and beaten up, but he manages to survive, because he’s one of the meaner Sacketts.
     L’Amour shifts point of view a few times, but most of the story is told by Logan. Some loose ends aren’t tied up: will Logan settle down, or will he continue to drift? Read other stories in the Sackett saga to find out! The book is a page turner, despite the occasional asides into history and geography and such. There are also odd lapses in style, with Logan now and then using decidedly bookish phrasing to describe the landscape  and weather. I’m on a L’Amour binge, so my rating is probably a bit high. The title has no obvious relation to the plot, unless “dark” is taken to mean “dim, hard to see.” ***½

Canadian and US political attitudes

     Fire and Ice (2003) Michael Adams, founder of Environics, summarises the results of three Canadian and American surveys, which suggest that Canadian and American values are diverging. At the time (and still to some extent today), it was taken for granted that Canadians were becoming more American. This book makes a persuasive case for the contrary. In particular it shows that, measured with American scales of values, Canadians are more post-modern, more liberal, more community minded, more inner-directed, etc, than Americans. In general, Canadians lie outside the range of American attitudes and values, and are off some scales entirely.
     Two things struck me about Adams’s results:
     a) The drift into what we now call Trumpism was already well-established by the early 1990s. The main difference between then and now is that the disaffected Americans who occupy the “Exclusion and Intensity” quadrant of Adams’s “maps” have begun to vote. They’ve also, I think, become more numerous and more intense.
     b) The divisiveness that has characterised America from about Ronald Reagan onwards has become more prevalent in Canada.
     Fifteen years is a long time in cultural change these days. The Millennials, who tend towards liberal values in Canada and to libertarian values in the USA, will I think become more politically active and influential. Check the Environics website for updates in Adams’s project to track cultural change. ***

Commercial art from 30 years ago: Graphis Annual 83/84

  

  Walter Herdeg, ed.  Graphis Annual 83/84 (1983) Just what the title says. A survey of applied art as used in advertising, illustrations in books and periodicals, logo and trademark design, packaging, and so forth. Graphis was one of the premier magazines for commercial artists. I used to buy it from a shop across from OCAD back then, to inspire my students. What’s interesting is how dated these examples are. Commercial art is slave to fashion and fad. Which prompts the inference that fashion itself is just another form of commercial art.
     In any case, fashion and commercial art feed on each other. Both are always a step or two behind the current styles in entertainment, which in turn is behind the latest developments in the arts. There was a nicely done weekly fashion news show on TV  a few decades ago. Most of the news covered fashion shows in New York or Paris or wherever. The background music was relentlessly blandified disco. This at a time when the prevailing music styles were acid rock, reggae, and hiphop. The intended ambience was of up-to-the-minute awareness of how the cool life was lived, but the actual effect was to make fashion seem hopelessly naive and, er, old-fashioned.
     Nevertheless, the Graphis annual is worth looking through. Not only as a record of bygone visual styles and assumptions about marketing, but because commercial art surrounds us in a way that fine art does not. Commercial art has become our  habitat; fine art is confined to cathedral-like museums that we enter with hushed voices and unarticulated expectations. Yet our taste has, I think, been shaped by the commercial art that has become the seen but unnoticed visual environment. ***